System Dynamics to Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Under Water Supply Uncertainty1

Abstract: Water supply uncertainty continues to threaten the reliability of regional water resources in the western United States. Climate variability and water dispute potentials induce water managers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts. The Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in the state of Idaho is also facing these challenges in the sense that population growth and economic development strongly depend on reliable water resources from underground storage. Drought and subsequent water conflict often drive scientific research and political agendas because water resources availability and aquifer management for a sustainable rural economy are of great interest. In this study, a system dynamics approach is applied to address dynamically complex problems with management of the aquifer and associated surface‐water and groundwater interactions. Recharge and discharge dynamics within the aquifer system are coded in an environmental modeling framework to identify long‐term behavior of aquifer responses to uncertain future hydrological variability. The research shows that the system dynamics approach is a promising modeling tool to develop sustainable water resources planning and management in a collaborative decision‐making framework and also to provide useful insights and alternative opportunities for operational management, policy support, and participatory strategic planning to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts in human dimensions.     

The backward incidence of pollution control—some comparative statics in general equilibrium

The backward incidence of stronger pollution controls onto the factors of production is examined in a two sector (one polluting, one not), general equilibrium model. The real returns to labor and capital are found to move in opposite directions that depend on the factor intensity of the nonpolluting sector. The magnitudes of these effects are shown dependent upon the degree of factor intensity in that sector, the ease with which pollution can be removed from the effluent, the ease with which capital and labor can be substituted in either sector, and the price elasticities of demand for the sectors' products.     

Transport of copper as affected by titania nanoparticles in soil columns

The effects of TiO₂ nanoparticles on the transport of Cu through four different soil columns were studied. For two soils (HB and DX), TiO₂ nanoparticles acted as a Cu carrier and facilitated the transport of Cu. For a third soil (BJ) TiO₂ nanoparticles also facilitated Cu transport but to a much lesser degree, but for a fourth soil (HLJ) TiO₂ nanoparticles retarded the transport of Cu. Linear correlation analysis indicated that soil properties rather than sorption capacities for Cu primary governed whether TiO₂ nanoparticles-facilitated Cu transport. The TiO₂-associated Cu of outflow in the Cu-contaminated soil columns was significantly positively correlated with soil pH and negatively correlated with CEC and DOC. During passage through the soil columns 46.6-99.9% of Cu initially adsorbed onto TiO₂ could be “stripped” from nanoparticles depending on soil, where Cu desorption from TiO₂ nanoparticles increased with decreasing flow velocity and soil pH.     

Comparison of micrometeorological and two-film estimates of air–water gas exchange for alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane in the Canadian archipelago

The air-sea gas exchange of alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) in the Canadian Arctic was estimated using a micrometeorological approach and the commonly used Whitman two-film model. Concurrent shipboard measurements of α-HCH in air at two heights (1 and 15 m) and in surface seawater were conducted during the Circumpolar Flaw Lead study in 2008. Sampling was carried out during eight events in the early summer time when open water was encountered. The micrometeorological technique employed the vertical gradient in air concentration and the wind speed to estimate the flux; results were corrected for atmospheric stability using the Monin-Obukhov stability parameter. The Whitman two-film model used the concentrations of α-HCH in surface seawater, in bulk air at 1 and 15 m above the surface, and the Henry's law constant adjusted for temperature and salinity to derive the flux. Both approaches showed that the overall net flux of α-HCH was from water to air. Mean fluxes calculated using the micrometeorological technique ranged from -3.5 to 18 ng m(-2) day(-1) (mean 7.4), compared to 3.5 to 14 ng m(-2) day(-1) (mean 7.5) using the Whitman two-film model. Flux estimates for individual events agreed in direction and within a factor of two in magnitude for six of eight events. For two events, fluxes estimated by micrometeorology were zero or negative, while fluxes estimated with the two-film model were positive, and the reasons for these discrepancies are unclear. Improvements are needed to shorten air sampling times to ensure that stationarity of meteorological conditions is not compromised over the measurement periods. The micrometeorological technique could be particularly useful to estimate fluxes of organic chemicals over water in situations where no water samples are available.     

A drowned Mesozoic bird breeding colony from the Late Cretaceous of Transylvania

Despite a rapidly improving fossil record, the reproductive biology of Mesozoic birds remains poorly known: only a handful of undisputed, isolated Cretaceous eggs (some containing embryonic remains) are known. We report here the first fossil evidence for a breeding colony of Mesozoic birds, preserved at the Late Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) Oarda de Jos (Od) site in the Sebe? area of Transylvania, Romania. A lens of calcareous mudstone with minimum dimensions of 80?cm length, 50?cm width and 20?cm depth contains thousands of tightly packed, morphologically homogenous eggshell fragments, seven near-complete eggs and neonatal and adult avialan skeletal elements. Eggshell forms 70–80?% of the matrix, and other fossils are entirely absent. The bones exhibit clear characters of the Cretaceous avialan clade Enantiornithes, and the eggshell morphology is also consistent with this identification. Both taphonomy and lithology show that the components of this lens were deposited in a single flood event, and we conclude that it represents the drowned remains of a larger enantiornithine breeding colony, swamped by rising water, washed a short distance and deposited in a shallow, low-energy pond. The same fate often befalls modern bird colonies. Such a large concentration of breeding birds suggests aquatic feeding in this species, augments our understanding of enantiornithine biology and shows that colonial nesting was not unique to crown birds.     

Ecology and Conservation of the Endangered American Burying Beetle (Nicrophorus americanus)

Field studies were conducted on the western population of the endangered American burying beetle (Nicrophorus americanus) in Oklahoma and Arkansas to determine its habitat affinities. A common cause of declining populations is some specialized adaptation that makes it difficult to respond to a rapidly changing habitat. We evaluated the hypothesis that N. americanus is a habitat specialist in its search for food, preferring mature forests with deep, humic soils. This hypothesis was rejected. Based on comparisons of niche breadth among syntopic congeners and niche overlap, N. americanus is relatively generalized in its use of a range of habitats when searching for food. It is likely that the generalist nature and the endangered status of N. americanus both derive from the fact that it is the largest member of its guild. In comparison to smaller species, N. americanus breeds on larger carcasses, which are more unpredictable in space and time. It is likely, therefore, that N. americanus must search over a larger area and greater diversity of habitats than its smaller congeners.     

Near term mitigation policy for global change under uncertainty: Minimizing the expected cost of meeting unknown concentration thresholds

An aggregate integrated assessment model is used to investigate the relative merits of hedging over the near term against the chance that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide will be limited as a matter of global policy. Hedging strategies are evaluated given near term uncertainty about the targeted level of limited concentrationsand the trajectory of future carbon emissions. All uncertainty is resolved in the year 2020, and strategies that minimize the expected discounted value of the long term cost of abatement, including the extra cost of adjusting downstream to meet unexpected concentration limits along unanticipated emission trajectories, are identified. Even with uncertainties that span current wisdom on emission futures and restriction thresholds that run from 550 ppm through 850 ppm, the results offer support for at most modest abatement response over the next several decades to the threat of global change.     

Great Basin Land Management Planning Using Ecological Modeling

This report describes a land management modeling effort that analyzed potential impacts of proposed actions under an updated Bureau of Land Management Resource Management Plan that will guide management for 20 years on 4.6 million hectares in the Great Basin ecoregion of the United States. State-and-transition models that included vegetation data, fire histories, and many parameters (i.e., rates of succession, fire return intervals, outcomes of management actions, and invasion rates of native and nonnative invasive species) were developed through workshops with scientific experts and range management specialists. Alternative restoration scenarios included continuation of current management, full fire suppression, wildfire use in designated fire use zones, wildfire use in resilient vegetation types only, restoration with a tenfold budget increase, no restoration treatments, and no livestock grazing. Under all the scenarios, cover of vegetation states with native perennial understory declined and was replaced by tree-invaded and weed-dominated states. The greatest differences among alternative management scenarios resulted from the use of fire as a tool to maintain native understory. Among restoration scenarios, only the scenario assuming a tenfold budget increase had a more desirable outcome than the current management scenario. Removal of livestock alone had little effect on vegetation resilience. Rather, active restoration was required. The predictive power of the model was limited by current understanding of Great Basin vegetation dynamics and data needs including statistically valid monitoring of restoration treatments, invasiveness and invasibility, and fire histories. The authors suggest that such computer models can be useful tools for systematic analysis of potential impacts in land use planning. However, for a modeling effort to be productive, the management situation must be conducive to open communication among land management agencies and partner entities, including nonprofit organizations.